For several years now, it has been apparent to industry insiders that, essentially, all light sources in the near future will transition to LED or OLED. So the question needs to be asked: When energy efficiency becomes irrelevant (because every light source has a very high level of efficacy as a standard feature), how will designers continue to conserve energy?
The answer, I think, will be a shifting of focus for lighting designers from selecting light sources to scripting lighting control systems; designers will need to engage the art of dynamic controls.
Accompanying this shift will be the transition of energy code metrics from “installed load” to total power consumption over time. A result of this transition is that lighting designers will be measured on actual performance, via measured consumption of kilowatt-hours. To continue to demonstrate value to their clients, lighting designers must adopt a dynamic time-based mentality, moving away from the antiquated mid-century tradition of producing homeostasis in interior environments (as I detail in my article “Less or Else is a Bore“.
This is touched upon in the brief review by Forbes of the Canaccord Genuity report titled “A Light Read” on the lighting industry by Jonathan Dorsheimer and Josh Baribeau.